People say it’s the stuff of nightmares. Pandemic fuel. A two week incubation period and largely asymptomatic. But is the coronavirus (COVID-19) truly as lethal as we believe it is?
There’s no getting past the numbers. In under three months, the virus has set foot in seventy countries, with 3,100 mortalities and a staggering 90,000 global cases. It’s hard to ignore the fact that several cases have surfaced close to home.
On a more positive note, the “reproduction value” is the number of cases that an infected person will cause during their infectious period, and scientists at the Imperial College Group estimate r0 = 1.5 - 3.5; comparatively, the flu has an r0 value of 2-3. This statistic is a glimmer of hope. Old measles outbreaks were sudden and explosive; disseminating with a reproduction value of 18. Furthermore, coronavirus’ low mortality rate of 3.4% is hardly a source for concern - especially considering that only 1% of cases affect those under 18. According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the majority of fatalities are attributed to pre-existing lung conditions, weak immune systems, or old age.
The CDC offers the following tips to hinder infection: “Avoid close contact with people who are sick. Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth. Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe. CDC does NOT recommend that people who are well wear a facemask to protect themselves from respiratory diseases, including COVID-19. Face masks should be used by people who show symptoms of COVID-19 to help prevent the spread of the disease to others. Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.”
Strict quarantines in China seem to be working, at least for now. Experts reporting from The New York Times claim that the rate of infection is slowing. In this fast paced world of social media, data spreads lightning-fast, giving rise to positives and negatives. Misinformation disperses like wildfire, the whole world in a panicked uproar. Yet, there’s always a silver lining, and that comes into play here because centers like the CDC aim to institute a sort of global online crowd control: a phenomenon specific to the information age.
All in all, it’s important to corroborate what you hear in the media, maintain proper hygiene, and above all, use common sense. It’s time to dispel the myths of this disease.